The Republican party’s descent into civil war has revived Democratic hopes of an improbable treble by winning the presidency, House and Senate, allowing Hillary Clinton to pursue an aggressive agenda without the obstacles that have faced Barack Obama.
With Donald Trump’s campaign at risk of imploding, there are growing signs that both parties are focusing on the battle for Congress, where Republicans have everything to lose and could find Trump dragging them underwater like a drowning man.
Trump’s apparent declaration of war against the House speaker,
Paul Ryan , and the Republican establishment on Tuesday will have done little to soothe nerves.
Republican members of Congress seeking re-election now face the perilous choice of whether to risk alienating moderates or angering Trump diehards. Some are evidently trying to have their cake and eat it.
The Senate consists of 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats and two independents, both of whom caucus with the Democrats. The House breaks down as 246 Republicans and 186 Democrats with three vacancies.
This year was always going to be an uphill battle for Republicans in hoping to retain the Senate.
Democrats are defending just 10 seats while the GOP has to hold on to 24. Democrats also tend to do better in a presidential election year with higher turnout.
If Clinton wins the White House, Democrats need to take only four seats to gain control because the vice-president has the casting vote in the event of a tie.
But key Senate races, which include presidential battlegrounds such as New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, have remained competitive.
The House also seemed to be safe in Republican hands, due in significant part to the gerrymandering that has made districts more partisan.
Despite Democrats’ best efforts to cast their opponents as the “Party of Trump”, few signs have pointed to the brash real estate mogul being as deadly to down-ballot candidates as they once feared.
But last Friday’s release of an 11-year-old video in which Trump boasted about sexual assault have again shaken the party to its core.
As his poll numbers plunge, there are fears that independent and even some Republican voters will turn against the party, or at least stay at home on election day, potentially handing Democrats a crucial advantage.
Suddenly the Senate looks in grave jeopardy and even the House could be in play again.
Voters support Democrats over Republicans for Congress by seven percentage points, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll taken after the release of the tape but before Sunday night’s presidential debate.
Democrats have been looking to tie candidates to Trump for some time and are now intensifying their efforts. One TV ad for a House seat in Wisconsin attacks Republican Mike Gallagher by playing the Trump video and stating: “Mike Gallagher still says we have to support Donald Trump. No, we don’t. We don’t have to support Mike Gallagher either.”
Among the most vulnerable incumbent Republican senators are Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, Richard Burr in North Carolina, Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, Mark Kirk in Illinois, and Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania.
Also facing tough re-election battles are senators Rob Portman of Ohio, Marco Rubio of Florida and John McCain in Arizona, who have managed to run parallel races to Trump despite endorsing him.
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